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High Probabilty Trading

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Feb 15, 2012 12:41pm Feb 13, 2012 11:21am | Edited Feb 15, 2012 12:41pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Hello

Im from Poland 31yrs old. On markets for about 8yrs - begin with Polish Stocks market and futures. For 4yrs Forex Trading (and some longer term stocks invests) is my only job. Im mostly Daytrader - my open postions last no longer than 10-15hours but most are few hours. Im breakout skalper too - that positions last seconds but i will not show them on this blog now. U will see here my market analysis before i open position. I will tell exacly when i will open position, where i put SL and than show whole management of my open positions. My trading style is something simillar to R. Miner - but in most situations im not using time projections.


Trading Strategy:

1. Simple Elliot waves - just 5waves moves and ABC corrections.

2. Fibo Retracements and Projections - if i see group of Fibo close to each other i will marke this level as potential reversal.

3. DTOSC indicator (it can be stochastic too). When i get signal on bigger time frame on fast DTOSC (1h for forex) im moving to smaller (15m or 5m) and im looking for signal on slower DTOSC if i get it all i open position.

4. Position size: im opening 2 positions with 2-3% risk. 1 is short term and 1 is long term.

5. Manage of positions: no TP, positions close by SL. SL will be move different for both positions.




I post my trades 1st on my blog: HERE
There u can find live analysis, opening positions, updates (in manage of opened position im posting 1st than change it on my accounts)

Hope You will like it.

DTOSC indicator:
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 DT Oscillator.mq4   5 KB | 2,840 downloads | Uploaded Feb 15, 2012 12:40pm
File Type: ex4 DT Oscillator.ex4   6 KB | 1,693 download | Uploaded Feb 15, 2012 12:40pm
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 11:24am Feb 13, 2012 11:24am
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
http://cdn-chartimage.opentrader.com...0213030038.jpg

2x shorts on 1,32749. SL 1,32868.



Targets are blue levels on chart.
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 11:28am Feb 13, 2012 11:28am
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
GBP/USD short. Situation on H1

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wFEyJIvPDn...400/kabel1.JPG

Price just reach marked level. There is signal on slower DT. So we are going to 5min chart

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HAnpJqpHJH...400/kabel2.JPG

There is signal on slower DT - so i opened position. 2xshorts. 1.58194. SL 1.58310. SL = 12pips.




Now take a look on targets:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BHLKTpOnHI...400/kabel1.JPG

Short term position target is from whole AC correction. 1,5751 - is 61,8 fibo and 38,2 fibo from 1-5 last down move. Thats the level from which i will defend short term position just over last 5min bar.


Long term position potential is much, much bigger. I will begin with max target = 100% of last 1-5 wave. 1,5625 - but i dont think that move will be that smooth that my position will last so long.


Another targets are just fibo levels of 1-5wave.

1.57049 is 61.8 of 1-5move and 127,2 of AC wave.

1,5671 is 78,6 of 1-5move and 161,8 of AC wave and those 2 are more probable.


  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 11:31am Feb 13, 2012 11:31am
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
I'm sorry that positions are after time. But those are jsut examples. U can see HERE (not my blog - another www) that my plans were before price reached levels, and after opening positions they were on loss for first few minutes after i post them.


Anyway SL now are:

GBP/USD Stop Losses moved at 1,58120

EUR/USD Stop Losses moved at 1,32710
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 11:48am Feb 13, 2012 11:48am
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
EUR/USD 11:46 Out on Stop Loss - +4pips. First of all - why i moved SL that close. EUR/USD was much stronger than GBP/USD and i was scared that it can not go with plan.
What now? Im just still looking on it. Long term plan is still valid so if it goes near retracement levels and give signal on DT i will reopen positions.
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 12:02pm Feb 13, 2012 12:02pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
12:00 SL +8pips. Still looking for shorts if i will have a sell signal on my planned fibo levels.
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 12:21pm Feb 13, 2012 12:21pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JqVoyxOwnq...400/kabel1.JPG


Reopen of GBP/USD

1,518171 SL - 1,518310 SL - 14pips

I will move SL to 1,51270 soon.
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 1:10pm Feb 13, 2012 1:10pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
13:09 SL on GBP/USD moved to 1.58170
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:15pm Feb 13, 2012 1:44pm | Edited at 4:15pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Short term position SL on GBP/USD moved to 1.518110 Long term is still on 1.518170
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:08pm Feb 13, 2012 4:08pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
16:06 Im moving long term position SL on GBP/USD to 1.58110 due to high with sell signal on 15min slow DT

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RaKm_XotYZ...uOU/s400/1.JPG
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:13pm Feb 13, 2012 4:13pm
  •  stevebalmmer
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 1,014 Posts
wich npair, please write this in all posts.

thx steve

Quoting Akhh
Disliked
6:06 Im moving long term position SL to 1.58110 due to high with sell signal on 15min slow DT

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RaKm_XotYZ...uOU/s400/1.JPG
Ignored
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:16pm Feb 13, 2012 4:16pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Quoting stevebalmmer
Disliked
wich npair, please write this in all posts.

thx steve
Ignored

Done - thnx.

I see that charts are not opening to bigger - i will work on it too.
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:20pm Feb 13, 2012 4:20pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
16:18 GBP/USD Price reached 50% fibo and short term stop lose moved to 1.57840 - i will move it over 5min bars.

Now its 1.57810
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:21pm Feb 13, 2012 4:21pm
  •  stevebalmmer
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 1,014 Posts
yes the charts are not open bigger.
On your blog, have you live charts?

Quoting Akhh
Disliked
Done - thnx.

I see that charts are not opening to bigger - i will work on it too.
Ignored
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:24pm Feb 13, 2012 4:24pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Quoting stevebalmmer
Disliked
yes the charts are not open bigger.
On your blog, have you live charts?
Ignored

Im trying to update them when something change. And on blog they can be open.
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 4:25pm Feb 13, 2012 4:25pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
16:24 GBP/USD Short term position closed on SL. +36pips with 12pips SL.

Long term position should last much longer - but it can of course close on SL which is now just +6pips.
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 5:09pm Feb 13, 2012 5:09pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Long term GBP/USD position SL moved to 1.58015 - sell signal on 5m slow DT.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-f-NxH3rUHp...BW8/s400/1.JPG
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 8:10pm Feb 13, 2012 8:10pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
20:08 GBP/USD I have sell signal on 15min chart on slow DT. Now i can move SL above this high 1.57870:


http://s1.pokazywarka.pl/i/911395/707022/1.jpg
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2012 9:41pm Feb 13, 2012 9:41pm
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
21:40 GBP/USD I'm leaving this position for night. SL still 1.57870. BTW my time is GMT+1 = Central Europe
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Feb 14, 2012 5:54am Feb 14, 2012 5:54am
  •  Akhh
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
05:49 Night brought v nice fall down of GBP/USD. It reached my 1st long term target:
1.57049 is 61.8 of 1-5move and 127,2 of AC wave.
I moved SL to 1.57220 because of sell signal on slow DT on 15min TF:


http://s1.pokazywarka.pl/i/912126/118748/1.jpg
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